Monday, June 2026

VOL. 19, ISSUE NO. 3 | June 2026

Oversight

Table 1 from page 44
  • Engineering exports continued its growth run in the new fiscal 2026‑27 after securing all‑time high growth in the two previous fiscal years successively.
  • During the month of April 2026, engineering exports from India was recorded at USD 10,351.01 million as against USD 9,515.77 million, registering a growth of 8.78 percent year‑on‑year.
  • As per the quick estimates of the government, the share of engineering in total merchandise exports was recorded at 23.8 percent in April 2026, a bit lower than 24.9 percent in April 2025.
  • Among the 34 product panel as defined by the DGCI&S, as much as 28 product panels achieved year‑on‑year growth in exports during April 2026 while only six panels conceded decline over April 2025.
  • Panel‑wise analysis showed that the growth in April 2026 was basically attributed to significant growth of Aluminium and its products (38%), Copper and its products (80%), Electric machinery and equipment (9.5%), two and three wheelers (36%), and Auto components/parts (7.2%) among others. Exports of Nuclear machinery, industrial boilers and parts declined by 30% year‑on‑year.
  • Among the exporting regions, top destination North America and EU saw growth of 7.1% and 13% respectively in April 2026.Exports to all regions recorded growth but exports to WANA and ASEAN continued to decline.
  • Among the top exporting countries, exports to USA, UK and Germany increased in April 2026 over the year but shipments to UAE, Singapore and Saudi Arabia continued to drop.
Table 2 from page 45

TOP 25 ENGINEERING EXPORT DESTINATIONS IN APRIL 2026

We now look at the export scenario of the top 25 nations that had highest demand for Indian engineering products during April 2026 over April 2025. The data clearly shows that top 25 countries contribute more than 74% of total engineering exports.

Table 2: Engineering exports country-wise (Values in US$ Million)

Table 2 from page 46
Table 1 from page 47

Source: DGCI&S

REGION WISE INDIA'S ENGINEERING EXPORTS

The following table depicts region wise India’s engineering exports for April 2026 as compared to April 2025

Table 3: Region wise engineering exports in April 2026 vis-à-vis April 2025 (Values in US$ Million)

Table 3 from page 48

Source: DGCI&S

Note: Myanmar has been included in ASEAN and not in South Asia, since ASEAN is a formal economic grouping.

Chart showing ASEAN

Source: DGCI&S

Regional Observations:

While on the first month of the new fiscal, India’s engineering exports remained positive in almost all regions, decline was noted in only two regions: WANA and ASEAN:

WANA: The demand in the WANA region has declined mainly due to decline in exports to UAE and Saudi Arabia. As per latest reports both the countries faced significant challenges due to regional conflicts.As per Deloitte, Saudi Arabia’s Purchansing Manager’s Index contracted for the first time since 2020 in March 2026. UAE has also faced issues as it is a transhioment hub and depends significantly on key shipping routes which have been affected due to the conflicts.UAE’s non‑oil PMI has also slowed down to 52.9 in March. Indian exporters are also facing stifcompetition from Chinese suppliers and even Russian suppliers at some instance.

ASEAN: In case of ASEAN,the decline has been noted in Philippines, Cambodia and Myanmar. The decline has been noted mainly in automobile and auto component exports.Also,decline was noted in Singapore in case of aircraft, spacecraft and parts.

PANEL WISE INDIA’S ENGINEERING EXPORTS

The following table depicts region wise India’s panel wise engineering exports for April 2026 as compared to April 2025

Table 4: Panel wise engineering exports in April 2026 vis-à-vis [US$ Mn] April 2025

Table 2 from page 50
Table 1 from page 51

Sectoral Observations:

India’s engineering exports grew by about 8.8% in April 2026 to around US$ 10.35 billion, with mixed performance across panels:

a. Exports of iron and steel rose by 3% during April 2026, supported by higher shipments of primary steel, while products of iron and steel grew ataahiger rate of 5% compared to the growth of 1.1% witnessed in exports of iron and steel. Overall, India’s steel exports rose 3% to US$1.67 billion during April 26, supported by strong demand from the USA, Nepal, UK, Italy, Belgium, Korea Rep, Netherland, Vietnam and UAE, etc.

As reflected in the Ministry of Steel data, India’s crude steel production increased by 5.8% year‑on‑year to 14.1 Mt in April 2026, supported by a 3.4% rise in finished steel production (13.05 Mt), while finished steel consumption grew at a much faster pace of 8.1% to 12.99 Mt.

b. The non‑ferrous metals panel emerged as a major growth driver, with exports rising by 44% to US$1.3 billion during April 2026. Products like Copper, Aluminium and Zinc witnessed high growth in the first month of the current fiscal. Only exports of Lead declined by 2% mainly due to decline in exports to South Korea by 42%. However, overall engineering exports to Korea in April 2026 remained positive at 7%.

c. Exports of industrial machinery increased by 4% to US$1.82 billion during April 2026, driven by strong demand for Pumps and Valves, Machine Tools, Injecting moulding Machinery.However, exports of IC engines and parts grew only moderately.

d. Exports of electrical machinery grew by 10% to US$1.3 billion, supported by demand for power equipment, switchgear, and transmission‑related products.

e. The automobile sector recorded robust growth of 10%, with exports reaching US$2.2 billion, led by South Africa, Mexico, Spain, SriLanka, Colombia,Nigeria,Indonesia witnessing strong growth, reflecting sustained demand for vehicles and components. Therefore, as a whole for auto components and parts, USA, Mexico, South Africa, Germany, Spain, UK, Peru, Indonesia while South Asia countries, witnessed a strong rebound mainly in Sri Lanka and also in Nepal that boosted auto and auto components and parts exports. However, shipments to Saudi Arabia, Japan, Brazil, Bangladesh, Italy and Australia decelerated.

Exports of other engineering products decelerated by 1% to US$1.25 billion, witnessing negative growth in Hand tools, Prime Mica and Other engineering items.In contrast, Railway Transport, medical and scientific instruments and Bicycle and parts, ccranes lifts and Winches, office Equipments and Other Construction Machinery witnessed positive growth during April 2026 compared to April 2025.

ENGINEERING EXPORTS – STATE-WISE ANALYSIS ( Fiscal 2025-26)

Overveiw of FY 2025-26:

  • India’s engineering exports remain highly concentrated, with the top 12 states accounting for nearly 91% of total exports during April–March 2025–26, underscor‑ ing the dominance of a few in‑ dustrial hubs.
  • Maharashtra leads with exports of about USD 25.1 billion, regis‑ tering an 11% growth (from USD 22.6 billion) and contributing 20% to the national total, driven by its strong engineering manufacturing base. Tamil Nadu follows with USD 20.4 billion (+12%, 17% share), while Gujarat recorded USD 18.2 billion (+9%, 15% share), reflecting continued strength in western and south‑ ern regions. Karnataka witnessed the highest growth among major states at 32% (USD 9.6 billion, 8% share), while Haryana grew by 18% to USD 8.9 billion (7% share).
  • In contrast, Delhi saw a sharp contraction of 19% to USD 4.1 billion (3% share) and Telangana declined significantly, while mod‑ erate growth was seen in states like Odisha and Uttar Pradesh.Overall, export growth remains concentrated across western and southern industrial corridors, supported by strong manufactur‑ ing ecosystems and export‑ori‑ ented infrastructure.

Table 5: India’s top states constituting 91% of India’s engineering exports (Value in US$ billion)

Table 2 from page 52
Table 1 from page 53

Source: DGCI&S

Table 6: Region Wise Engineering Exports (Value in US$ million)

Table 2 from page 53

Source: DGCI&S

India’s region‑wise engineering exports (DGCIS) grew by 5% to US$ 122.4 billion in April–March 2025– 26, led by the Western Region at US$ 47.5 billion (+11%, 38.8% share).The Southern Region remained largely flat at US$ 38.1 billion (–1%, 31.1% share), while the Northern Region rose marginally by 2% to US$ 25.0 billion (20.4% share) and the Eastern Region grew by 7% to US$ 11.9 billion (9.7% share). Overall, exports remain concentrated in the Western and Southern regions (about 70%), with the West driving overall growth.

Table 3 from page 53
Table 1 from page 54

India’s state‑wise engineering exports in April 2026 show moderate growth, led by Tamil Nadu and Gujarat (15–25% growth, ~16% share each), while Karnataka grew 30% (8% share) and Odisha surged 45% (6% share). Maharashtra remained the largest exporter at USD 2.1 billion (20% share) with flat growth, whereas Punjab and a few northern states saw declines. Overall, growth is driven by western and southern states.

Table 8: Region Wise Engineering Exports (Value in US$ million)

Table 5 from page 54

Source: DGCI&S

India’s region‑wise engineering exports in April 2026 grew by 9% to US$ 10.35 billion, driven largely by the Western Region at US$ 4.09 billion (+9%, 39.5% share). The Southern and Northern regions recorded moderate growth of about 5% each, reaching US$ 2.99 billion (28.9%) and US$ 2.16 billion (20.8%) respectively, while the Eastern Region showed the highest growth at 28% to US$ 1.12 billion (10.8%). Overall, exports continue to be led by the Western Region, with balanced contributions from other regions.

Key Products driving exports in top states:

  • • Maharashtra: Industrial machinery, auto components, motor vehicles, iron & steel, products of iron & steel
  • • Maharashtra: Industrial machinery, auto components, motor vehicles, iron & steel, products of iron & steel
  • • Tamil Nadu: Motor vehicles,industrial machinery, electric machinery, auto components, ship/boat structures (sharp rise)
  • • Gujarat: Ship/boat structures (surge), motor vehicles, products of iron & steel, copper products, machinery
  • • Karnataka: Electric machinery (major jump), aircraft/spacecraft parts, auto components, engineering goods
  • • Haryana: Motor vehicles, auto components, electric machinery, industrial machinery, two‑wheelers

Disclaimer: Please note the following disclaimer given by the DGCI&S whereby it is stated that state‑wise export figures are based on state of origin code in shipping bills and may not give the right estaimate. Also the datdata hast been updated since the last two years

CORRELATION BETWEEN MANUFACTURING OUTPUT AND ENGINEERING EXPORTS

Engineering forms a considerable part of the broader manufacturing sector and the share of engineering production in overall manufacturing output is quite significant. As exports generally come from what is produced within a country, some correlation between manufacturing production growth and engineering export growth should exist.We briefly look at the trend in manufacturing growth as also engineering export growth to see if they move in tandem. It may be mentioned that manufacturing has 77.63% weightage in India’s industrial production.

Engineering export growth and manufacturing output growth moved in the same direction in as many as nine out of twelve months in each of the fiscal years 2019-20 and 2020-21. During fiscal 202122, engineering export growth and manufacturing growth moved in the same direction in seven out of twelve months while in each of fiscal 2022-23 and 2023-24, as many as 10 out of 12 months saw engineering exports and manufacturing output moved in the same direction. In 2024-25, both moved in the same direction in eight out of 12 months.

The first two month of fiscal 2025‑ 26 saw engineering export growth and manufacturing output growth moved in the opposite direction.In April, engineering export growth surged to double digit and manufacturing growth decelerated, while in May engineering export declined and manufacturing output growth inched up over the month. Then, In June, July and August 2025 however, both moved on the same direction. In June and July, both witnessed improvement in growth while in Aug 2025, both conceded moderation in growth. In September 2025 however, engineering growth continued to slowdown but manufacturing growth accelerated.Both engineering growth and manufacturing growth moved in the same direction during October to December 2025. October 2025 saw both going down with decline in engineering exports while November 2025 witnessed surged in both with substantially higher growth. In December 2025 however, while engineering exports grew, the growth rate slowed down whereas the manufacturing growth rate was maintained. The month of January 2026 saw acceleration in engineering export growth but moderation in manufacturing output growth while February 2026 witnessed higher growth of both over the month. The last month of fiscal 2025‑26 saw a slowdown in both engineering export and manufacturing growth.During 2025‑26, both engineering export growth and manufacturing growth moved in the same direction in seven out of 12 months.

The link between these two may not be established in one or two months, but a positive correlation may be seen if medium to long term trend is considered.

Table 9: Engineering exports growth vis-à-vis manufacturing growth from April 2024

Table 2 from page 56

Source: Department of Commerce and MOSPI, Govt. of India

IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE ON INDIA’S EXPORTS

How did the exchange rate fare during April2026 and what was the recent trend in Re‑Dollar movement? In order to get a clearer picture of the recent Re‑Dollar trend, not only we took the exchange rate of April 2026, but also considered monthly average exchange rate of Rupee vis‑à‑vis the US Dollar for each month of fiscal 2024‑25 and fiscal 2025‑26 as per the latest data published, as mere one‑month figure does not reflect any trend. The following two tables clearly depicts the short‑term trend.

Table 1 from page 57

Rupee depreciation vis-à-vis the US dollar continued on the back of high crude prices following the geo-political crisis in West Asian region.

Flight of foreign capital from Indian market especially by FPIs also accelerated rupee’s fall. Rupee weakened by around 0.9% month‑on‑month in April 2026 while the depreciation was10.6% in fiscal 2025‑26.

(As per latest data released by FBIL)

Table 11: USD-INR monthly average exchange rate in 2025-26 vis-à-vis 2024-25

Table 4 from page 58
Chart showing Average Rate of FBIL has been considered)

ANALYSIS OF INDIA’S ENGINEERING IMPORTS

  • India’s Engineering imports during April 2026 were valued at US$ 14.4 billion compared to US$ 13.1 billion in April 2025 registering a positive growth of 10 percent in dollar terms.
  • In April 2026, imports increased sharply for Ships, Boats & Floating Structures, Copper and its products, Electric Machinery &Equipments, Project Goods, along with Two and Three Wheelers , Auto Tyres And Tubes, Other Construction Machinery, Motor Vehicle/Cars, Hand Tool, Cutting Tool Of Metals, & Industrial Machinery for dairy.
Chart showing Fig 3: Monthly Engineering Imports for April 2026 vis-a-vis April 2025
  • In April 2026, import increased from all regions with increase mainly noted from CIS, South Asia, Latin America, WANA, ASEAN, NE Asia ,Other European countries and Others.
  • The share of engineering imports in India’s total merchandise imports in Apr 2026 was estimated at 20.1 percent.
  • 39.9 % of India’s engineering imports come from N E Asia and 21.3 % from the EU. The next major suppliers are ASEAN (13.1%), North America (7.1%) and WANA (7.5%) during Apr 2026.

TREND IN ENGINEERING TRADE BALANCE

We now present the trend in two‑way yearly trade for the engineering sector for the Apr 2026 depicted in the table below:

Table 1 from page 59

CONCLUSION:

The Indian engineering performance continued its growth run in the first month of FY 2026‑27, recording a significant growth of 8.78% over the same period last year. The growth was noticed in almost all sectors and all regions. Decline was majorly noted in WANA where the region has been significantly impacted by the regional conflicts. However, within the region, exports to Oman increased which is a positive indicator especially due to the recently signed India‑Oman CEPA.

In this context, it is also important to mention that the Government of India has signed a slew of FTAs with some of our major partners, however to make the FTAs really successful, we need to understand all market access challenges faced by Indian exporters in the FTA partner countries. UNCTAD’s Global Trade Update in its May issue, mentioned that trade policies are becoming interventioninst and while tariffs are raising, it is the non‑tariff measures (NTMs) that are creating the major obstacles and raising the trade cost‑ As per UNCTAD, while tariffs increased around 10 to 18%, NTMs impose higher export costs than tariffs for 88% of countries. Therefore while bilateral trade agreements are important in the growing protectionism, it is essential that the government and industry along with the Indian Missions abroad collaborate to identify and address the NTMs that create market access challenges.

ANNEXURE - I

ENGINEERING PRODUCT PANELS – COUNTRY-WISE ANALYSIS

We now analyze the performance of some of the important products for the fiscal April 2026 vis‑à‑vis April 2025.

We have taken the major panels and computed the top importers to get an idea of the current trade pattern.

Engineering Product Panel - Country matrix (Value in US$ million)

Table 3 from page 60
Table 1 from page 61
Table 2 from page 62

Source: DGCI&S

  • In April 2026, USA, Nepal and UK ranked as the top importers of Indian Iron and Steel, while the USA, Germany and UAE lead in import of products of Iron & Steel.
  • The USA stood out as the primary importer of Indian ‘Industrial machinery,’ making up 20% of India’s global exports in this category, followed by Germany and China with 5% ad 3% shares, respectively.
  • South Africa, Mexico and Saudi Arab were top importers of India’s Automobiles during April 2026 in India’s global exports respectively over the same period previous fiscal.
  • USA, Saudi Arab and China were the top three importers of India’s Non‑ferrous metals and products during April 2026.
  • USA, UK and Singapore were the top importers of Indian Electrical Machinery & Components during the same period with 18%, 12% and 10% shares, respectively.
  • USA, France, UK and Germany were the top importers of India’s Aircrafts and Spacecraft during April 2026, making up to 69% of India’s total export of Aircrafts and Spacecraft
  • Sri Lanka, UAE and Singapore became the largest importer of ships, boats and floating structures during April 2026 in India’s global exports respectively over the same period previous fiscal.
  • For the auto components’ product group, USA remained the top importer in April 2026 followed by Germany, Brazil, Mexico ad Bangladesh.
Table 1 from page 63
Table 1 from page 64
Table 1 from page 65
Figure 1 - FUTURE BUZZ